The asymptotic behavior of the proposed estimation procedure is studied. Our theoretical results show that the proposed method can achieve a faster convergence rate than the optimal convergence rate for sampling methods.

Recent studies have shown that episodic reinforcement learning (RL) is not more difficult than bandits, even with a long planning horizon and unknown state transitions. However, these results are limited to either tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) or computationally inefficient algorithms for linear mixture MDPs. In this paper, we propose the first computationally efficient horizon-free algorithm for linear mixture MDPs, which achieves the optimal $\tilde O(d\sqrt{K} +d^2)$ regret up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm adapts a weighted least square estimator for the unknown transitional dynamic, where the weight is both \emph{variance-aware} and \emph{uncertainty-aware}. When applying our weighted least square estimator to heterogeneous linear bandits, we can obtain an $\tilde O(d\sqrt{\sum_{k=1}^K \sigma_k^2} +d)$ regret in the first $K$ rounds, where $d$ is the dimension of the context and $\sigma_k^2$ is the variance of the reward in the $k$-th round. This also improves upon the best known algorithms in this setting when $\sigma_k^2$'s are known.

We study the problem of efficiently estimating the coefficients of generalized linear models (GLMs) in the large-scale setting where the number of observations $n$ is much larger than the number of predictors $p$, i.e. $n\gg p \gg 1$. We show that in GLMs with random (not necessarily Gaussian) design, the GLM coefficients are approximately proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares (OLS) coefficients. Using this relation, we design an algorithm that achieves the same accuracy as the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) through iterations that attain up to a cubic convergence rate, and that are cheaper than any batch optimization algorithm by at least a factor of $\mathcal{O}(p)$. We provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm, and analyze the convergence behavior in terms of data dimensions.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Model averaging (MA) and ensembling play a crucial role in statistical and machine learning practice. When multiple candidate models are considered, MA techniques can be used to weight and combine them, often resulting in improved predictive accuracy and better estimation stability compared to model selection (MS) methods. In this paper, we address two challenges in combining least squares estimators from both theoretical and practical perspectives. We first establish several oracle inequalities for least squares MA via minimizing a Mallows' $C_p$ criterion under an arbitrary candidate model set. Compared to existing studies, these oracle inequalities yield faster excess risk and directly imply the asymptotic optimality of the resulting MA estimators under milder conditions. Moreover, we consider candidate model construction and investigate the problem of optimal all-subset combination for least squares estimators, which is an important yet rarely discussed topic in the existing literature. We show that there exists a fundamental limit to achieving the optimal all-subset MA risk. To attain this limit, we propose a novel Mallows-type MA procedure based on a dimension-adaptive $C_p$ criterion. The implicit ensembling effects of several MS procedures are also revealed and discussed. We conduct several numerical experiments to support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed Mallows-type MA estimator.

We study the problem of efficiently estimating the coefficients of generalized linear models (GLMs) in the large-scale setting where the number of observations n is much larger than the number of predictors p, i.e. n\gg p \gg 1 . We show that in GLMs with random (not necessarily Gaussian) design, the GLM coefficients are approximately proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares (OLS) coefficients. Using this relation, we design an algorithm that achieves the same accuracy as the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) through iterations that attain up to a cubic convergence rate, and that are cheaper than any batch optimization algorithm by at least a factor of \mathcal{O}(p) . We provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm, and analyze the convergence behavior in terms of data dimensions.

The main idea of the paper is an interesting and, at least to me, novel one. Sections 1 to 3 are extremely well written, while the second half of the paper seems a bit more hurried. It would be worthwhile pointing out early in the paper that the proposed approach applies only when the canonical link is used (currently stated in line 92). However, the authors say: "Motivated by the results in the previous section, we design a computationally efficient algorithm for any GLM task that is as simple as solving the least squares problem; it is described in Algorithm 1." The "any" suggests that the canonical link is not required.

Recent studies have shown that episodic reinforcement learning (RL) is not more difficult than bandits, even with a long planning horizon and unknown state transitions. However, these results are limited to either tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) or computationally inefficient algorithms for linear mixture MDPs. In this paper, we propose the first computationally efficient horizon-free algorithm for linear mixture MDPs, which achieves the optimal \tilde O(d\sqrt{K} d 2) regret up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm adapts a weighted least square estimator for the unknown transitional dynamic, where the weight is both \emph{variance-aware} and \emph{uncertainty-aware}. When applying our weighted least square estimator to heterogeneous linear bandits, we can obtain an \tilde O(d\sqrt{\sum_{k 1} K \sigma_k 2} d) regret in the first K rounds, where d is the dimension of the context and \sigma_k 2 is the variance of the reward in the k -th round. This also improves upon the best known algorithms in this setting when \sigma_k 2 's are known.

Matrix completion tackles the task of predicting missing values in a low-rank matrix based on a sparse set of observed entries. It is often assumed that the observation pattern is generated uniformly at random or has a very specific structure tuned to a given algorithm. There is still a gap in our understanding when it comes to arbitrary sampling patterns. Given an arbitrary sampling pattern, we introduce a matrix completion algorithm based on network flows in the bipartite graph induced by the observation pattern. For additive matrices, the particular flow we used is the electrical flow and we establish error upper bounds customized to each entry as a function of the observation set, along with matching minimax lower bounds. Our results show that the minimax squared error for recovery of a particular entry in the matrix is proportional to the effective resistance of the corresponding edge in the graph. Furthermore, we show that our estimator is equivalent to the least squares estimator. We apply our estimator to the two-way fixed effects model and show that it enables us to accurately infer individual causal effects and the unit-specific and time-specific confounders. For rank-$1$ matrices, we use edge-disjoint paths to form an estimator that achieves minimax optimal estimation when the sampling is sufficiently dense. Our discovery introduces a new family of estimators parametrized by network flows, which provide a fine-grained and intuitive understanding of the impact of the given sampling pattern on the relative difficulty of estimation at an entry-specific level. This graph-based approach allows us to quantify the inherent complexity of matrix completion for individual entries, rather than relying solely on global measures of performance.